EPA: 37,000 new freight cars this year

The “explosion of orders in this year’s first quarter” has led Economic Planning Associates to increase its projection of freight car deliveries this year from 22,000 to a “conservative” 37,000. EPA expects deliveries to rise to 43,000 in 2012, 48,000 in 2113, 53,000 in 2014, 59,000 in 2015, and 62,500 in 2016.

EPA President Peter Toja (pictured) says first-quarter orders for 36,903 cars and intermodal platforms was the highest quarterly total since fourth-quarter 1997. Builders’ backlogs increased from 22,658 on Dec.31 to 51,913 on March 31.

“At current production levels, this backlog represents 6.8 quarters of assemblies, the highest level since we began calculating this ratio in 1992,” said Toja in EPA’s latest Railcar Review. “[A] rapid escalation in assemblies in the past two quarters, along with a continuation of this trend, could strain the availability of parts and components [and] has turned us somewhat cautious with regard to assemblies in 2011 and 2012.”

Toja noted that “some of the current backlog contains cars that, as part of a multiyear agreement, will be delivered 3-5 years from now. While we will closely monitor assemblies and parts availability during the second quarter, we view our 2011 and 2012 deliveries estimates as conservative and will raise this forecast as conditions continue to improve.”