2011-2015 projection: 48,450 new cars a year

Trinity Industries issued a new projection Thursday calling for the production by all builders of an average of 48,450 new freight cars a year over the next five years. The range is from roughly 30,000 in 2011 rising to around 60,000 in 2015.

In the final hour of trading on the New York Stock exchange Friday, Trinity shares were at 34.26, more than double the 12-month low of 16.11 reached last July. TRN shares closed Thursday at 34.61.  

The Trinity projection is further evidence of the rising momentum of freight car buying that was noted earlier by Peter Toja, president of the freight car analysis firm of Economic Planning Associates. Railway Age magazine last month reported EPA’s forecast for 27,000 new freight car builds in 2011, rising to 33,500 in 2012, 42,800 in 2013, and 58,000 by 2016.

In mid-March, Trinity announced that its subsidiary, Trinity Rail Group, had entered into an agreement with GATX Corp. to deliver 12,500 railcars over a period of five years. D. Stephen Menzies, Trinity Rail Group president, said "the agreement provides us with a level of production continuity for the next five years."

In a presentation to investors Thursday, Trinity noted that the carbuilding industry as a whole shipped 16,500 railcars in Trinity’s fiscal 2010, of which 4,750 were from Trinity. The company collected new orders for 8,380 cars during the period, 28% of the industry total. As of Dec. 31, 2010, Trinity’s backlog was approximately 5,960 railcars.

Trinity said it has "significant manufacturing capacity" in Mexico that continues to grow. Trinity built 39% of its railcars in Mexico in 2010.

The company also noted rapid growth in its railcar lease fleet, from 8,700 cars in 2000 to 51,910 in 2010. Cars valued at $180 million were added in2010.

In addition to its Rail Group and its Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, Trinity operates a Construction Products Group, an Energy Equipment Group, and an Inland Barge Group.