At the latest “Railroad Happy Hour” event at TD Cowen, leaders in the railroad market pointed to noteworthy signs of optimism looking into next year as industrial projects take stronger footing. Intermodal rates
We adjust our third-quarter 2024 estimates for the U.S. railroads to reflect volumes quarter-to-date (QTD), mix headwinds and diesel tailwinds. Our TD Cowen rail survey offers a slightly negative read for the rail pricing outlook. Hurricane Helene could have notable impact in the fourth quarter for the Eastern carriers but it is too soon to know just how much. We remain cautious on U.S. group into the print.
At the NEARS (North East Association of Rail Shippers) Fall 2024 Conference in Pittsburgh, a leading IMC (intermodal marketing company) panelist sees a 99% chance of a week-long East Coast strike as
Shippers expect 3.4% rate increases over the next 6-12 months, up 30bps sequentially and roughly in line with our survey average. Business growth expectations improved while economic confidence stepped down. 24% of
Our survey is comprehensive and covers a broad range of industrial and consumer industries, among others. Chemicals, Transportation, and Manufacturing comprised the largest percentages of participants. Shippers completing this survey had approximately
We adjust our models as we head into Q124 earnings–a slow start to the year due to harsh weather was followed with a rebound and U.S. carloadings turning positive YTD, led by
Industry leaders were more bullish on rail and intermodal at the latest “Suds with Seidl” event at TD Cowen, as they see strong February trends after some weather-related weakness in January. The 2022
According to an unsubstantiated late-Jan. 31 Wall Street Journal article, an investor group led by activist Ancora Holdings Group, LLC intends to run a proxy fight and replace Norfolk Southern President and
We modestly lower our fourth-quarter 2023 estimates on mix pressures that are likely to be somewhat mitigated by fuel tailwinds. Intermodal recovery comes at the price of yield given the protracted over-the-road (OTR) rate trough. A revenue per carload rebound is likely a late-2024 story, at best. First-quarter 2024 should see typical seasonal softening, which is well understood as the focus shifts to recovery. We favor Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS) in 2024 on margin recovery prospects.
Leaders in the railroad and logistics market continue to see a challenged intermodal market and holiday peak season. Service has been materially improved on both coasts and the Class Is have plenty of capacity to handle more volume. STB Chairman Oberman announced his departure, a surprise to us and all panelists, leaving the seat open until POTUS names his successor.
