We hosted a call with rail industry participants on an update on rail service, end markets, and thoughts on a transcon merger. Tariffs are having a meaningful effect on import/export demand, and
Berkshire Hathaway does not intend to purchase CSX, a move we thought was the likely outcome given the competitive offering of an East/West combination. The valuation and merger benefits are clearly not
Union Pacific’s (UP) much-anticipated bid for Norfolk Southern (NS) was announced July 29. Both now embark on a lengthy review process, but we see the potential approval pathway justified due to U.S.
Unconfirmed reports over the weekend noted a Class I merger is close. These reports were preceded by actions by the STB that show the agency is preparing to handle a review in a more expedited fashion with a merger resource page already up, and a notice that the Board is embarking on taking steps to expedite regulatory processes. We continue to believe a deal is highly likely between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern.
We upgrade shares of Norfolk Southern and CSX to Buy as the likelihood of rail consolidation moves up considerably. A Union Pacific bid for NSC likely results in a BNSF bid for
Class I merger talk comes back to center stage as the Wall Street Journal reports Union Pacific is in early discussions with Norfolk Southern. We hosted a call with Littlejohn & Co.
TD Cowen recently hosted a call with industry executives from the rail equipment market. From that, we heard order books are seeing no notable growth, attributable to tariff uncertainty, and used car
Pricing expectations stalled in second-quarter 2025 and remain below our rail shipper survey’s long-term average. Business growth fell modestly sequentially to levels not seen since COVID. Economic confidence improved marginally, though well below the survey average. 47% of shippers would support a transcontinental merger. We are cautious for the rail group into earnings, though we favor Union Pacific (UP).
We hosted a call with former Surface Transportation Board Chair Daniel R. Elliott III to discuss rail M&A. An East-West consolidation remains an uphill battle—he gave it a 20%-25% chance—and would likely
Investors await the next leg of Class I rail earnings growth as the PSR story moves toward the rear-view mirror. This report explores the factors at play that can drive the future
