We hosted a call with Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka. Import trends are expected to be healthy in January and February, but a slowdown is expected post-Lunar New Year.
Eastern railroad volumes finished 2025 weaker than expected, and we have lowered 4Q25 estimates. We remain below consensus on Union Pacific, and lower 2026 EPS estimates below consensus for all U.S. rails,
Panelists at our recent Railroad Roundtable projected weak demand for 2026. Tightening truckload capacity is encouraging but not impacting rates enough yet to gain confidence in rail pricing cycle. The Union Pacific/Norfolk
We hosted a former Class I CEO to review the recent Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger application. He sees a very strong filing with acceptance likely though not until 2027. The CGP (Committed
Union Pacific updated investors Dec. 2 that its Surface Transportation Board filing to acquire Norfolk Southern will be pushed out two weeks due to “additional analysis from a contractor.” UP now expects
Pricing continues to decelerate in the third quarter, running well below the survey’s average. Business growth expectations worsen, akin to COVID lows. Economic confidence skews negative. Shippers would move LSD volume onto rails if transcon service offered. Rail earnings likely driven by M&A discussion despite incrementally weakening business conditions.
We lower Q3 EPS estimates below current consensus for both Eastern carriers, while modestly raising estimates for UNP, driven by outperformance in IM and coal. Broader freight demand remains challenged though M&A likely to continue to be center stage for most investor focus.
While consolidation sentiment varied at the NEARS conference, there was a belief that the deal would get done. Comments on the economic backdrop were not positive, varying from sub-seasonal to weakening. We
We believe a unified Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern sees potential upside to disclosed revenue synergies as we quantify the watershed opportunity. Our analysis of more than 4,000 watershed O-D (origin-destination) pairs
We hosted a call with a former Class I CEO on the implications of a transcontinental merger. Our panelist believes the merger will enable significant share gains over the long term, more
